I've seen a lot of people comparing Nevada turnout to 2008. Careful! Remember, context matters. Several issues...in 2008, Nevada had just moved up in the process, and so it was sort of a first-time thing, which might have increased turnout over this year. It was also essentially earlier in the process. In 2008, Nevada went on the same day as South Carolina, and before Florida -- although Michigan had squeezed in between New Hampshire and Nevada/South Carolina. Between the calendar and the way the process played out, the nomination was far more up for grabs when Nevada caucused in 2008 than it was this time around. In fact, there were still three viable candidates at that point (McCain, Huck, and Romney), and the press was still treating Fred Thompson and Giuliani as viable candidates, although they really weren't. And Ron Paul was Ron Paul.
I have no idea how to adjust for any of that, but at least in my view it's silly to do a straight year-to-year comparison without keeping the context in mind.
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Read Stuff, You Should
Hey, it's Babe Ruth's birthday! February 6, 1895. Did you know that Fenway Park was, when he played there, an extreme pitchers' park and HRs were almost impossible to hit there? He did okay at Yankee Stadium though.
The good stuff:
1. I sort of like this NYT initiative to crowdsource obscure campaign finance reports. I'm more in favor of campaign finance disclosure than, I think, the evidence suggests it's worth...that is, I'm not really convinced that in real life disclosure actually does make that much difference, but I think in theory it's important to protect the potential of disclosure. So good for the Times.
2. We all know that the press has an interest in keeping the nomination battle going; Erica Fry on reporters actively rooting for it.
3. OK, I'm not going to stoop to giving Seth Masket a Catch of the Day for this one, but go ahead and click it.
4. Could have also given a CotD to Harold Pollack for this one on tax whiners.
5. And Sarah Kliff reports from inside Komen.
The good stuff:
1. I sort of like this NYT initiative to crowdsource obscure campaign finance reports. I'm more in favor of campaign finance disclosure than, I think, the evidence suggests it's worth...that is, I'm not really convinced that in real life disclosure actually does make that much difference, but I think in theory it's important to protect the potential of disclosure. So good for the Times.
2. We all know that the press has an interest in keeping the nomination battle going; Erica Fry on reporters actively rooting for it.
3. OK, I'm not going to stoop to giving Seth Masket a Catch of the Day for this one, but go ahead and click it.
4. Could have also given a CotD to Harold Pollack for this one on tax whiners.
5. And Sarah Kliff reports from inside Komen.
Posted by
irbob sevenfold
Labels:
campaign finance,
taxes
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